Now that Ben has clarified his answer to the problem of induction as being one largely similar to the one provided by P.F. Strawson, and now that I have pointed out the many problems with that solution in this post, I can move on to quote a question from Ben that was asked in his last comment.
Suppose we can’t ground induction in deduction. In that case, why should we refrain from taking inductive inferences to be rational? Why is it that you think justification for a position on, say, the force of gravity on earth, cannot consist of a strong inductive argument? I just don’t see how you could possibly defend that kind of position.
As I’ve already mentioned (in the post linked to above), I don’t care to “ground induction in deduction.” I am not faulting induction for not being deduction. I am, however, posing the age-old problem of induction to Ben in light of his rejection of the Christian worldview. He asks, “why should we refrain from taking inductive inferences to be rational?” My answer is simple, and it was expressed early on in the history of philosophy prior to being popularized by philosophers David Hume and later Bertrand Russell.
We should “refrain” from taking inductive inferences to be rational upon the basis that even granting that the premises of an inductive argument are true, it does not follow that the conclusion will be true. This statement allows plenty of room for Ben or anyone else to propose their own “standards” of induction that are not deductive. I simply want to know why we should ever take the premises of such an argument, once stated as Ben would want to state it, to provide any support at all for the conclusion of that argument. Thankfully, Ben gets more specific.
Ben asks, “Why is it that you think justification for a position on, say, the force of gravity on earth, cannot consist of a strong inductive argument?” Let me see if I can help Ben out. Does Ben currently experience the force of gravity on earth? Yes. We will grant him this much. Now let’s probe a bit deeper. Does Ben currently experience the force of gravity on earth in the very next second? No. Does Ben currently experience of the force of gravity on earth in its entirety? No. Does Ben currently have universal experience of the force of gravity on earth? No. Could Ben ever have such experience? No. Indeed:
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth on Monday.
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth on Tuesday.
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth on Wednesday.
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth on Thursday.
Does it follow that Ben will experience the force of gravity on earth on Friday?
Of course not, for the particular experiences listed in the premises of this argument are independent of one another. Now if Ben had some sort of extra premise that told him that his future experience of the force of gravity on earth will resemble his past experience, then we might have something to support his expectations concerning Friday, but as it is, we do not. Or:
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth in Illinois.
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth in Iowa.
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth in Indiana.
Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth in Kentucky.
Does it follow that Ben will experience the force of gravity on earth in Virginia?
Of course not, for the particular experiences listed in the premises of this argument are independent of one another. Now if Ben had some sort of extra premise that told him that nature exhibits regularities including the force of gravity on earth, then we might have something to support his expectations concerning Virginia, but as it is, we do not. In fact, even if Ben experiences the force of gravity on earth in all of the other states, as soon as he goes to Virginia he cannot know that the force of gravity on earth has remained as he previously experienced it in those other states.
So I do not really see that Ben can take a position with respect to the force of gravity on earth beyond whatever experience is present to him unless he wants to do so without any support for doing so. Thus Ben has a problem of justification, knowledge, and rationality with respect to induction as illustrated in the example of gravity.
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EDIT:
Chris,
I really don’t know what you’re getting at, here. You deny that you are seeking deductive support for induction, but then you turn around and say that you want an inductive conclusion (that is, a conclusion to a cogent inductive argument) to “follow” from the premises. But follow how? An inductive conclusion already DOES follow inductively from the premises. The only other kind of “follow” I know is the deductive kind.
It does not follow from the facts that Ben experienced the force of gravity on earth in Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, and Kentucky that Ben will experience the force of gravity on earth in Virginia. Ben has not provided any reason whatsoever to think that these premises have anything to do with the conclusion.
In other words, it sounds like you want true premises of an inductive argument to guarantee that the conclusion is true. But that is precisely what deduction IS. It’s as if you’ve denied you are seeking water, while simultaneously insisting that you want a liquid with the chemical structure H2O.
Maybe instead you just want the premises of an inductive argument to guarantee that the conclusion is PROBABLY true. But probability is about norms of expectation (i.e. what we should vs should not expect given certain conditions),
And like I have (surely?) pointed out many times by now (at least in other contexts), Ben has not provided any reason whatsoever to think that these premises even probably have anything to do with the conclusion. Why, why, why should we expect to experience the force of gravity on earth a second from now? Ben has no answer to this question. He just arbitrarily, and hence irrationally, does so. The probability that Ben will experience the force of gravity on earth a second from now is equivalent to the probability that he will not, at least given Ben’s worldview.
and so this is why I talked about taking induction as justified by part of what it means for something to be justified. It is part of our epistemic standards that a strong inductive argument constitutes justification for belief. Just like we have moral standards for how we should vs should not behave, so too we have epistemic standards for what we should vs should not believe. These epistemic standards define what it is for something to be “justified,” or “rational,” etc. So, if you want something to be “probably” true, that demand only makes sense in the context of such standards—after we have defined rational justification using induction.
I have already addressed the appeal to Strawson’s argument. Interestingly, Ben proposes that he has moral and epistemic standards within his worldview as well. I would like to know how. But that massive problem aside, Ben is not actually answering the specific questions concerning induction such as why should we expect to experience the force of gravity on earth a second from now. Why should we believe that we will experience the force of gravity on earth a second from now? Stating that there are things we should and should not believe does not answer the question of how we determine what such things are.
On a related note, is this what you mean by “epistemic justification” for induction—having the truth of a conclusion “follow” from the truth of the premises—? Because if that’s it, then I don’t see how your problem with induction hasn’t been answered already. If not, then what DO you mean by “epistemic justification”?
Thanks,
–Ben
This is not difficult, but it may just be that I am a poor communicator. I want to know what reason or evidence Ben has for moving from the premises of an inductive argument like either of the two examples above to the conclusion of such an argument. I want to know this regardless of what we say regarding the probable or expected nature of the conclusion. If Ben wants to represent a piece of inductive reasoning in a different manner then I am fine with that as well, but the same questions will apply. What is it that connects the premises together with the conclusion? How does Ben reason beyond the present testimony of his memory and senses?
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